
Article written by Grace Calengor on ConstructionExec.com.
No recession in 2025? Anirban Basu seems optimistic about the state of the construction economy at year's end.
On Dec. 11, 2024, Construction Executive presented its final economic webinar of the year. Hosted by Anirban Basu, ABC’s chief economist, “Construction Executive’s 2025 Construction Economic Forecast” revealed many things for contractors to be on the lookout for next year—and not all of them bad. Comparing poll results from Q3, as well as answering viewers’ top questions, Basu discussed the surprising performance of the 2024 construction economy and his equally surprising outlook for 2025.
POLL RESULTS
Which of these is the leading challenge for your company today?
Supply chain and/or materials issues
- Dec. 11: 6%
- Q3: 6%
Skills / worker shortage
- Dec. 11: 52%
- Q3: 59%
Insufficient demand for construction services
- Dec. 11: 15%
- Q3: 15%
Availability of financing for projects/project work
- Dec. 11: 19%
- Q3: 14%
None of the above
- Dec. 11: 6%
- Q3: 5%
Over the last three months, how has your company’s backlog fared?
It has risen considerably
- Dec. 11: 12%
- Q3: 16%
It has risen slightly
- Dec. 11: 27%
- Q3: 27%
It has remained about the same
- Dec. 11: 26%
- Q3: 28%
It has declined slightly
- Dec. 11: 27%
- Q3: 23%
It has declined considerably
- Dec. 11: 8%
- Q3: 6%
Where do you expect your company’s profit margins to be a year from now?
Substantially higher
- Dec. 11: 6%
- Q3: 3%
Slightly higher
- Dec. 11: 34%
- Q3: 34%
About the same
- Dec. 11: 34%
- Q3: 35%
Slightly lower
- Dec. 11: 22%
- Q3: 24%
Substantially lower
- Dec. 11: 5%
- Q3: 3%
Main Takeaways
While he did address many questions relating to the workforce/skilled labor shortage, the outgoing administration (IIJA) and incoming administration (tariffs), Basu actually wasn’t insistent on the U.S. entering a recession anytime soon; in fact, he hardly mentioned recession at all. His overall outlook for the 2025 construction economy—while uncertain in some respects—is starting out positive.
For all the insights, view the full webinar on ConstructionExec.com.