A recent article on edzarenski.com compares forecasts from 10 sources on nonresidential building construction spending forecasts over the past several years. It highlights the variation in projections and emphasizes the importance of understanding the methodology behind each forecast, so that you can look beyond single forecasts and consider multiple perspectives when planning for the future.
Compare 10 Construction Spending Forecasts for Nonres Bldgs Feb 2025
Original Article: https://edzarenski.com/2025/02/11/compare-10-forecasters-of-nonres-bldgs-2025-2023/
Construction Analytics updates the Construction Spending Forecast every month, usually publishing at least a Brief, every other month. The AIA Consensus solicits forecasts from 9 firms that prepare construction spending forecasts and publishes a Consensus Forecast every January and every June-July. The AIA Consensus reports only on nonresidential buildings.
This table captures the percents growth issued by the 9 firms reporting in the AIA Consensus and the Consensus average. Included is Construction Analytics full forecast. Also included, FMI and Construct Connect also provide full forecasts. Capturing this history provides a ready template to compare “How’d we do?” at the end of the year. It’s not often that we get to look back at forecasts to see how they performed when compared to the actual results. But I’m sure you’ve been asked, “Did you ever go back and look to see how you’ve done?”
You can see in this most recent 2025 table that some of the forecasts vary widely. For instance, in the most recent forecast for 2025: Data Centers forecasts range from +17% to +42%; Manufacturing from -11% to +18%; Educational -2% to +10%; Healthcare -1% to +21%; Warehouse -9% to +12%; Lodging -7% to +22%. Very few (if any) forecasts are in agreement. That’s why it’s valuable to capture the data and compare it to actuals once all the data is in at the end of the year. The first total for every year is issued in Feb., but the final annual actual value is subject to Census revisions until July of the following year.
Click here to see the table and read the rest of the article.
